Free tip of the day
Slip #918La Liga 2 - Spain
Girona FC - Mallorca
Kick-off: Sun, 04/10, 21:00
Pick
Over 1.5 goals
Odds
1.26
Our probability75%
Free tip of the day
One complete analysis every day, no sign-up. The same process as our paid tips.
TEAM FORM
Girona's last three Segunda División fixtures produced 2, 3 and 3 goals respectively, a 1-1 draw with Leganés, a 2-1 win over Cádiz and a 1-2 defeat to Castellón, clearing our line in every case. Mallorca arrive with three wins, one draw and one defeat across their last five outings, scoring 7 and conceding 2 for an average of 1.8 goals scored per game.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The last three meetings finished 0-1, 1-2 and 1-0. Two of those three cleared the 1.5-goal line and none exceeded three goals, a tight but consistently scoring pattern that fits our market precisely.
INJURIES AND ABSENCES
No key absences have been reported for either side ahead of this fixture. Both teams therefore take to the pitch at full strength, which means the figures above carry no asterisk.
TACTICAL ANALYSIS
Girona average 1.33 goals scored per home game this season while Mallorca manage just 0.5 per away match. The home side will push forward, the visitors will defend deep, but Girona's home record shows they find the net regardless. The resulting open transitions create the space that tends to produce at least one further goal beyond the opener.
STATISTICAL PREDICTION
The model assigns a 78% probability to this outcome, implying a fair price of 1.28. The bookmaker offers 1.38, an edge of 7.81%, meaning every £10 staked carries approximately 78p of long-run positive expected value. Over a sufficient sample, that margin becomes tangible profit.
VERDICT
The 7.81% edge exists because the bookmaker has overweighted Mallorca's defensive solidity and underweighted Girona's home scoring record, which has produced a goal in all three recent league games. The only credible scenario that defeats this bet is a 0-0 or 0-1, possible but not supported by either side's recent numbers. At 1.38, the price is demonstrably wrong.
Previous free tips
Crewe Alexandra - Bristol Rovers
2026-10-03 · Over 1.5 goals @ 1.25
Seattle Sounders FC - Sporting Kansas City
2026-10-01 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.36
León - FC Juárez
2026-09-28 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.67
Burgos CF - CD Eldense
2026-09-27 · Over 1.5 goals @ 1.40
AD Ceuta FC - Real Sociedad B
2026-09-26 · Over 1.5 goals @ 1.28
Operario PR - Ceará
2026-09-25 · Over 1.5 goals @ 1.38
Girona FC - Albacete
2026-09-24 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.62
Serbia - Greece
2026-09-23 · Over 1.5 goals @ 1.35
Worksop Town FC - AFC Telford United
2026-09-22 · Over 1.5 goals @ 1.26
Toluca - Santos Laguna
2026-09-21 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.35
Royal Antwerp - Union Saint-Gilloise
2026-09-20 · Over 2.25 goals @ 1.39
Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa
2026-09-19 · Double chance: Tottenham Hotspur or Draw @ 1.27
Eintracht Frankfurt - SC Freiburg
2026-09-18 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53
Brentford - Chelsea
2026-09-17 · Double chance: Chelsea or Draw @ 1.54
SK Sturm Graz - Rennes
2026-09-16 · Double chance: Rennes or Draw @ 1.22
Anderlecht - Lyon
2026-09-15 · Under 3.5 goals @ 1.48
Shelbourne Dublin - Drogheda United
2026-09-14 · 1-4 goals @ 1.33
Torino - AS Roma
2026-09-13 · Under 3.75 goals @ 1.34
Crystal Palace - Ipswich Town
2026-09-12 · Over 1.5 goals @ 1.25
Auxerre - Nice
2026-09-11 · 1-4 goals @ 1.39
Sport Recife - Ponte Preta
2026-09-10 · 2-5 goals @ 1.50
Vancouver Whitecaps FC - LA Galaxy
2026-09-09 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.37
Philadelphia Union - FC Cincinnati
2026-09-08 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.37
Cagliari - Lecce
2026-09-07 · Cagliari to win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.48
Arsenal - Chelsea
2026-09-06 · Arsenal to win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.35
Charleroi - Union Saint-Gilloise
2026-09-05 · Under 2.75 goals @ 1.68
Manchester City - Coventry City
2026-09-04 · Over 2.5 goals @ 1.33